The BassModel.lng Model

Estimate the Bass model for new product sales

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Bass(1969) introduced a model for predicting
first purchases of a new product.
The following three parameters specify the model:

M = estimate of the market size, that is,
the total number of customers that will
eventually buy the product.
For simplicity, we assume that the product is a
durable good, so that a customer will
purchase it at most once.

p = probability that a candidate customer in a given
period will purchase the product just by chance,
without any influence from existing customers.
These folk are called the innovators.

q = rate at which a candidate customer is induced
to purchase the product because of interaction with
existing customers. The greater the number of
existing customers, the greater the inducement.
These folk are the followers;
! If p = 0, then the Bass model approximates a discrete time
version of the logistic model for total cumulative sales.

If q = 0, then the Bass model approximates a discrete time
version of the exponential cdf for total cumulative sales;

Keywords:

Forecasting | Bass Model | New product diffusion | Logistic Curve |