MODEL:
! Learning curve model;
! Assuming that each time the number produced
doubles, the cost per unit decreases by a
constant rate, predict COST per unit with
the equation:
COST(i) = A * VOLUME(i) ^ B;
SETS:
! The OBS set contains the data for COST
and VOLUME;
OBS/1..4/:
COST, ! The dependent variable;
VOLUME; ! The independent variable;
! The OUT set contains the outputs of the model.
Note: R will contain the output results.;
OUT/ A, B, RATE, RSQRU, RSQRA/: R;
ENDSETS ! Data on hours per ton, cumulative tons for a
papermill based on Balof, J. Ind. Eng.,
Jan. 1966;
DATA:
COST = .1666, .1428, .1250, .1111;
VOLUME = 8, 60, 100 190;
ENDDATA
! The model;
SETS:
! The derived set OBSN contains the set of
logarithms of our dependent and independent
variables as well the mean shifted values;
OBSN( OBS): LX, LY, XS, YS;
ENDSETS NK = @SIZE( OBS);
! Take the logs;
@FOR( OBSN( I):
LX( I) = @LOG( VOLUME( I));
LY( I) = @LOG( COST( I)); );
! Compute means;
XBAR = @SUM( OBSN: LX)/ NK;
YBAR = @SUM( OBSN: LY)/ NK;
! Shift the observations by their means;
@FOR( OBSN:
XS = LX - XBAR;
YS = LY - YBAR);
! Compute various sums of squares;
XYBAR = @SUM( OBSN: XS * YS);
XXBAR = @SUM( OBSN: XS * XS);
YYBAR = @SUM( OBSN: YS * YS);
! Finally, the regression equation;
SLOPE = XYBAR/ XXBAR;
CONS = YBAR - SLOPE * XBAR;
RESID = @SUM( OBSN: ( YS - SLOPE * XS)^2);
! The unadjusted/adjusted fraction of variance
explained;
[X1]R( @INDEX( RSQRU)) = 1 - RESID/ YYBAR;
[X2]R( @INDEX( RSQRA)) = 1 - ( RESID/ YYBAR) *
( NK - 1)/( NK - 2);
[X3]R( @INDEX( A)) = @EXP( CONS);
[X4]R( @INDEX( B)) = - SLOPE;
[X5]R( @INDEX( RATE)) = 2 ^ SLOPE;
! Some variables must be unconstrained in sign;
@FOR( OBSN: @FREE( LY); @FREE( XS); @FREE( YS));
@FREE( YBAR); @FREE( XBAR); @FREE( SLOPE);
@FREE( XYBAR); @FREE( CONS);
END
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