! LINGO model to compute the probability of outcomes
in U.S. Presidential Election Electoral College.;
! The overall model consists of two submodels:
a) A simple model to convert the fractions of decided
voters for each party in a state into a single
probability a specified party will get all electoral
votes from the state.
b) A computationally intense model to compute the
overall probability of a specifed party wins, given
the probability for each state of a win;
! Keywords: Election, Presidential election, Electoral college,
Probability of winning;
! LINGO can be downloaded from http://www.lindo.com ;
SETS:
STATE: VOTES, PD, POPD, POPR;
KNT/1..275/:;
KXS( KNT, STATE): WAYS;
ENDSETS
DATA:
! Computing Vote Probabilities with LINGO;
! Definitions:
Inputs:
VOTES(j) = electoral votes for state j,
POPD(j) = proportion of population definitely voting Democratic,
POPR(j) = proportion of population definitely voting Republican
UVD = adjustment down of estimated Democratic popularity, to
give the assured fraction vote for a candidate.
UVR = adjustment down of estimiated Republican popularity, etc.;
! Computed inputs:
PD(j) = estimated probability electors for state j vote Democratic.;
UVD = 0;
UVR = 0;
! Electoral vote counts are for 2012;
! Popularity fractions based loosely on www.electoral-vote.com;
STATE, VOTES, POPD, POPR =
! State Votes P(Dem) P(Repb);
Alabama 9 0.36 0.54
Alaska 3 0.38 0.59
Arizona 11 0.44 0.52
Arkansas 6 0.30 0.58
California 55 0.56 0.33
Colorado 9 0.45 0.46
Connecticut 7 0.52 0.45
Delaware 3 0.62 0.37
DC 3 0.52 0.48
Florida 29 0.47 0.47
Georgia 16 0.44 0.52
Hawaii 4 0.62 0.30
Idaho 4 0.21 0.64
Illinois 20 0.55 0.36
Indiana 11 0.42 0.55
Iowa 6 0.47 0.42
Kansas 6 0.42 0.57
Kentucky 8 0.39 0.53
Louisiana 8 0.37 0.49
Maryland 10 0.55 0.36
Massachusetts 11 0.64 0.31
Michigan 16 0.48 0.42
Minnesota 10 0.49 0.43
Mississippi 6 0.43 0.56
Missouri 10 0.41 0.54
Montana 3 0.43 0.49
Nevada 6 0.49 0.46
New_Hampshire 4 0.49 0.47
New_Jersey 14 0.51 0.41
New_Mexico 5 0.50 0.41
New_York 29 0.62 0.33
North_Carolina 15 0.45 0.46
North_Dakota 3 0.39 0.54
Ohio 18 0.49 0.49
Oklahoma 7 0.38 0.58
Oregon 7 0.47 0.41
Pennsylvania 20 0.49 0.45
Rhode_Island 4 0.58 0.32
South_Carolina 9 0.40 0.46
South_Dakota 3 0.41 0.52
Tennessee 11 0.34 0.59
Texas 38 0.39 0.55
Utah 6 0.21 0.70
Vermont 3 0.62 0.31
Virginia 13 0.47 0.47
Washington 12 0.50 0.45
West_Virginia 5 0.38 0.52
Wisconsin 10 0.49 0.46
Wyoming 3 0.33 0.64
! Maine and Nebraska are special in that
they can split their votes,
so break them up into little states;
Maine1 1 0.51 0.37
Maine2 1 0.51 0.37
Maine3 1 0.51 0.37
Maine4 1 0.51 0.37
Nebraska1 1 0.39 0.58
Nebraska2 1 0.39 0.58
Nebraska3 1 0.39 0.58
Nebraska4 1 0.39 0.58
Nebraska5 1 0.39 0.58
;
ENDDATA
CALC:
@SET( 'TERSEO', 2); ! Turn of default output;
! Submodel (a) to convert popular support for each candidate in a state into
a probability the state votes Democratic. This submodel assumes that the
outcome of uncertain voters will be uniformly distributed.
Suppose for Colorado, the Republican committed fraction is 46% and
the Democratic committed fraction is about 45%. Thus, the uncommitted
fraction is 9%, then the Republican will win if he gets from 4% to 9%
from the uncertain voters. Thus, the model assumes the Republican
probability of winning Colorado is 5/9 = 0.555555;
@FOR( STATE(J):
! Subtract an uncertainty factor from each popularity fraction;
POPDA = @SMAX(0,POPD(J) - UVD);
POPRA = @SMAX(0,POPR(J) - UVR);
! Now assume the uncertain part of the population
distributes its vote uniformly between the two candidates;
@IFC( POPDA + POPRA #LT# 1:
PD(J) = @SMIN(1,@SMAX(0,(1-POPRA-0.5)/(1-POPDA-POPRA)));
@ELSE
PD(J) = POPDA;
);
);
! Submodel (b) to compute overall probability of a win, given
a probability for each state of a win, and its number of
electoral votes.
WAYS( I, J) = Probability a Democrat electoral count of I-1,
using only the first J states;
! Before we include any states, there is no way;
@FOR( KNT(I):
WAYS(I,1) = 0;
);
! Now do the first state;
WAYS(1,1) = 1 - PD(1); ! Vote count of 0;
WAYS(1+VOTES(1),1) = PD(1); ! Vote count of VOTES(1);
! Now the rest of the states;
@FOR( STATE( J) | J #GT# 1:
@FOR( KNT( I)| I - VOTES( J) #LE# 0:
WAYS( I, J) = WAYS( I, J - 1)*(1 - PD(J));
);
! We can get to I,J either without this state or with it;
@FOR( KNT( I)| I - VOTES( J) #GT# 0:
WAYS( I, J) = WAYS( I, J - 1)*(1-PD(J))
+ WAYS( I - VOTES( J), J - 1)*PD(J);
);
);
! Write a simple report;
@WRITE(@NEWLINE(1),' Probability of various outcomes for U.S. Electoral College.',@NEWLINE(1));
TOTVOTES = @SUM( STATE(J): VOTES(J));
SPLIT = @FLOOR( TOTVOTES/2);
NEED = SPLIT + 1;
@WRITE( UVD,' = under vote fraction, Democratic',@NEWLINE(1));
@WRITE( UVR,' = under vote fraction, Republican',@NEWLINE(1));
@WRITE( TOTVOTES,' = Number of votes.',@NEWLINE(1));
@WRITE( SPLIT,' = Number of votes needed to tie.',@NEWLINE(1));
@WRITE( NEED,' = Number of votes needed to win.',@NEWLINE(1));
NSTATES = @SIZE(STATE);
PDWIN = 1 - @SUM( KNT(I) | I-1 #LT# NEED: WAYS(I,NSTATES));
@WRITE( PDWIN,' = Probability of at least ',NEED,' Democratic votes.',@NEWLINE(1));
@WRITE( WAYS(SPLIT+1,NSTATES),' Probability of exactly ', SPLIT, ' votes.',@NEWLINE(1));
ENDCALC
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